China: What is happening inside the CCP?

The CCP, the Chinese Communist Party, is not the most public and open institution on Earth. This is probably not a scoop. Since the creation of the People Republic of China in 1949, the Party control the country, alone, without any serious form of political opposition. Western societies in 2021 are now used to the « peopolitical » verbal jousting between their politicians, deputies, ministers, inside the parliament or on twitter. There is nothing like that in China. No intern communication going out. In western countries, in democracies, there are different political parties, with different ideologies, all claiming power. In China, there are actually different parties, but it's irrelevant to talk about the others since they have no power. Still, the different ideologies exist inside of the Party. Nothing as diversified as in democracies of course, but still, from 1949, coexisted different branches: radical left, defender of Maoism, Stalinism ; authoritarians pushing for economical reforms ; or progressives (in green in the table bellow) calling for more democracy.  

Things evolve, even in the more radical institutions. 

General Secretaries	From	To	Prime Ministers	From	To
Mao Zedong	1949	1976	Zhou Enlai	1949	1976
Hua Guofen	1976	1981	Hua Guofeng	1976	1980
Hu Yaobang	1981	1987	Zhao Ziyang	1980	1987
Zhao Ziyang	1987	1989	Li Peng	1988	1998
Jiang Zemin	1989	2003
			Zhu Rongyi	1998	2003
Hu Jintao	2003	2013	Wen Jiabao	2003	2013
Xi Jinping	2013	-	Li Keqiang	2013	-

During the first 25 years of the PRC, power was between Mao Zedong's hands and it's PM, Zhou Enlai. The extremism of the first one is well-known, the second's is not. Zhou was more opened, especially on the international stage. He acted as a negotiator during the Korean war, after the annexation of Tibet in 1950, and was responsible for Nixon trip to China in 1972. More important, he denied the beneficial aspects of the Cultural Revolution, and called for China's modernization through the 4 modernizations program. Mao and Zhou both died in 1976. From this year until 1989, three teams got in charge of the country, but the real person in power was undoubtedly the well-know Deng Xiaoping, mainly responsible for the Chinese economic reform in 1978, when he opened up the country to the world. From 1976 to 1980, the official person in charge was Hua Guofeng, Mao's designated successor. Still too close from the radical ideology of Mao, he is rapidly evicted by Deng, and replaced by Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang. These two characters were openly progressive, calling for more democracy, economical reforms, denouncing the Cultural Revolution. They even encouraged and supported the student manifestations at the end of the 80's, weeks before the Tiananmen massacre. The June fourth incident was a turning point. For the Chinese society, for China, and also for the Party. After years of progressive policies, Deng had no choice but to deal with the conservative branch of the Party, leaded by Li Peng. He authorized the Tiananmen repression,  Zhao Ziyang  was dismissed and placed under house arrest until his death in 2005. He was buried in 2019 without any ceremony, his name condemned to damnatio memoriae. In 1989, Deng retire from politics. 

During the next ten years, power was held by Jiang Zemin, and Li Peng as Zhang's PM. They continued the economical opening up, but with strong political from the Party. Massacres and cultural genocides were stronger than even in Tibet, the Falun Gong movement got declared illegal, it's members were arrested and persecuted. 

In 2002 started a new era with Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, the new pair in power. Hu was a friend of Jiang Zemin and just like him continued the economical reforms. His figure is also well-known for its actions in Tibet, where he was Jiang's iron hand between 1989 and 1992. Wen Jiabao was also a support of a more liberal China, but in the same time, was also in favor of a more democratic country. He was very close of the two progressive leaders in the 80's. Nowadays, he is still famous for his declaration about democracy « democracy is one of the basic goals of the socialist system », advocating for universal values, and a step-by-step increase of democracy in China. Since 2012, the new government of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang has been leading the country. One more time, it's a union of a conservative and a liberal. Xi is a nostalgic of the Mao area, when the the power of the Party was total everywhere, when every decision was made by it. Despite its « pro opening » speeches, its domestic actions clearly show that he is in favor of a more centralized power, with the Party's tentacles everywhere, especially in the companies. The recent attacks against Alibaba, and next one coming against ByteDance and Tencent will temporary end the power of the big « private » conglomerates in China. At the opposite, Li is basically for more economical reforms, with less governmental interventions, less debts and monetary stimulation, and more structural reforms. Almost liberal in the Austrian sense. That's all for history.

What can we see? At first, since Mao death, China is heading toward more economical opening, and in a way, toward more decentralized power. Cooperation with foreign states and private companies increased with, and inside, China since the 80's, and accelerated especially since 2000 (the 90's probably being a phase of global sanctions and boycott after the Tienanmen massacre). More important, China started to join the WTO in 2001, held the Olympic games in 2008, increased its influence in the international organizations, developed its influence in every domains abroad: through the Confucius Institutes in education ; through its international press agencies (Xinhua, CGTN, China Daily, Global Times) in media ; even through its « panda soft-power policy » in science. From inside the party, it seems that the two branches, conservative and progressive, found a way to coexist since the beginning of the century. So, what is changing now ? 

The global Covid situation has shown that China may not be as « pacific » than it says. For more than a year now, the world is going from a bad surprise to another. It seems that everything is coming to an end. For years, we saw China participating in economic development projects all around the world, which are now proved to be a global neocolonization program through debt-enslavement, Confucius Institutes are now known to be espionage centers and are being closed in many countries (USA, Australia, Sweden, Belgium...), the cultural genocides (people held in camps in Xinjiang, cultural destruction in Tibet, Mongol dialect being prohibited in school and media in inner Mongolia) inside the country are now massively mediatized, denounced (and even recognized for what they are in some countries), annexation of Hong-Kong in total violation of the Sino-British agreement from 1998 will bring one of the most free and liberal place on earth back to middle age in terms of individual and economical freedom. The situation is not better abroad, with China claiming soil and maritime territories in every country of it's neighborhood, or evolve to trade war with some others (Australia especially, because you have to start somewhere).

This could be a common strategy coming from inside the Party, now controlled by Xi Jinping's faction. But a number of recent phenomenons could let us think that the unity isn't reached anymore. First, since his nomination, Xi is fighting against the adversary branch inside the Party. Bo Xilai, Chongqing CCP's leader, was in a way the leader of the opposition, with Jiang Zemin. The recent attack against Jack Ma, part of Jiang Zemin's network, and symbol of these new rich businessmen coming from the psot decade ear, show that the Party is not yet totally in his power. Secondly, Li Keqiang himself was part of quite interesting polemics in 2020. He in the first time started with the defense of the street vendors, working everywhere in China. Actually, they really are one of the best part of Chinese lifestyle. But for years now, there have been chased out of downtowns and cities for not being enough « glowing ». Fake and soulless malls are not the real China. Having a beer with barbecues on plastic stools in the street is. Anyway, Li questioned Xi's reform legitimacy a first time. Few days later, he surprised the whole world when admitting that 600 millions Chinese people, half of the country's population, actually earn less that 140$ a month. This astonishing attack is poles apart from the current propaganda claiming every six months that China is now out of poverty (based on the ridiculous poverty threshold of 4000 RMB a year). Li, close from Hu Jintao, with an almost orthodox conception of the economy, shown to the world the disunion, not only inside the party, but in its direction. He could have spoke for himself, but the probability that he was expressing the opinion of a branch willing less centralization seems more realistic. The recent attacks against the tech firms will end by the back-fire of the former pro « private » sector supporters. 

These are the recent words of the former PM Wen Jiabao, published in a tribute to his mother last month, in which he thanks her for the education and the truth she taught him, about his personal beliefs, like « his sympathy for the poor and the weak », his will to « protect them against intimidation and oppression ». This is, or could easily be interpreted, like a new attack, targeting the current Chinese leadership. Moreover, the fact that the post was deleted less that 24 hours later is actually a sign that the Party precisely took it like that.

In conclusion, it is realistic to think that many people are not quite satisfied about the current Chinese situation and diplomacy. People like Wen Jiabao know what they risk when they publish such content. We can consider that they are acting in order to express what they think to be right. Victims of the anti corruption purges, like Bo Xilai, of the juridical system, like Jack Ma, are just trying to protect their own interests. Li Keqiang is probably acting like that, because he believes that economical reforms are the only way to make Chinese people lives better. But anyway, many may think that having the ultra arrogant Chinese diplomacy through the wolf warrior diplomats than China is currently using, is not the best way to improve Chinese economy, Chinese society, and Chinese international relations abroad.

Note : A special thanks to my friend Anthony for his help and advice.